Live collection · updated hourly

Pacific Watch

Corroborated defence and security events across the Indo-Pacific, fused from 120 open sources by our Argus collection engine. Every dot is a multi-source event; size is corroboration, colour is best source grade (NATO Admiralty). The public feed runs 6 hours behind live collection.

12,552

reports collected, last 7 days

120

sources under continuous collection

1523

active fused events

14 min ago

snapshot generated

40°E60°E80°E100°E120°E140°E160°E180°E-40°S-20°S0°N20°N40°N60°NTaiwan StraitScarboroughHormuzMalaccaKorean Pen.Miyako StraitReport to Congress on Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe — 27 sources, grade AThe lesson of the Iran War may be staying power, not firepower — 27 sources, grade ATaiwan MND daily PLA report (2026-08-20): 7 PLA aircraft sorties (5 into the ADIZ), 8 PLAN vessels, 6 coast-guard vessels around Taiwan — 26 sources, grade AThe autonomous arms race in the Russia–Ukraine war — 25 sources, grade ANorth Korea’s naval buildup will stretch allied forces across the Indo-Pacific — 22 sources, grade A‘Hot competition’: NSA deputy sounds alarm on China threat, AI race — 20 sources, grade BUK accelerates long-range strike capability for Ukraine — 20 sources, grade AHormuz Traffic Levels Continue Decreasing, Houthis in Yemen Threaten Saudi Tankers — 19 sources, grade AChina’s Navy in 2025: An Ocean of Open-Source Documentation — 19 sources, grade AASPI at 25 – Shaping Australia’s relationship with its most important neighbour — 17 sources, grade ACentcom Completes Latest Strikes Against Iran — 17 sources, grade AEurope’s security cannot be built on coercion or spheres of influence: UK statement to the OSCE — 16 sources, grade AJapan Plans to Transform Military Capabilities with Drones, Boost Domestic Defense Industry — 16 sources, grade ABookshelf: the next China is still China — 15 sources, grade ARussia launches deadly missile and drone attacks on Kyiv — 14 sources, grade BU.S. to Fund Philippine Coast Guard Base Expansion Near South China Sea — 13 sources, grade ARussia’s Pacific submarine fleet could tip the scales in China’s favour — 12 sources, grade AThere’s no shortcut to replenish US munitions stockpiles — 12 sources, grade BIs Japan Decoupling From China? — 12 sources, grade BBeijing is testing who will stand by Taiwan — 12 sources, grade AReport to Congress on Issues for NATO at the Ankara Summit — 11 sources, grade ANorth Korea is learning from war. The US–South Korea alliance must keep pace — 11 sources, grade AChina pushes harder in South China Sea – as global attention drifts away — 11 sources, grade AContinuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Lebanon — 10 sources, grade APM meeting with President Zelenskyy: 27 July 2026 — 10 sources, grade AEU, speak out about China. You owe it to the Indo-Pacific — 9 sources, grade AIndonesia’s China exercise was a judgement failure, not an alignment shift — 9 sources, grade AThe Mecca Pact redraws the Indo-Pacific’s western edge — 9 sources, grade BReduction Expected for Japan Cost-of-Living Allowance Rates — 8 sources, grade APentagon says US strikes in Yemen in 2025 caused nearly 400 civilian casualties - stripes.com — 8 sources, grade BTeens who fled Venezuela after deadly quakes caught in another disaster in Colombia — 8 sources, grade BChina’s Reusable Space Launch Booster Recoveries Have Major Military Implications — 7 sources, grade BChina braces for back-to-back typhoons as extreme weather risks rise — 6 sources, grade BBy agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel’s bluff in Gaza - Chatham House — 6 sources, grade ANorth Korea launches missile barrage after dismissing Trump overture — 6 sources, grade BHasina’s homecoming pledge is a headache for New Delhi — 6 sources, grade BIsrael’s far right urges Netanyahu to reject Trump’s Gaza plan — 6 sources, grade BJoint Russian, Chinese Navy Patrol Sails Near Japan — 6 sources, grade ATaiwan holds air-raid evacuation drills to prepare for possible China invasion — 6 sources, grade BRussia missile lands in Poland as NATO scrambles in response - stripes.com — 5 sources, grade BRussia Is Expanding Its Long-Range Strike Drone Network — 5 sources, grade BBroken toilets, leaking roofs: Why India's 'cockroach' party wants to fix schools — 5 sources, grade BU.S. Reveals Coast Guard Cooperation with Taiwan — 5 sources, grade AUSS Benfold Was Stalled in the South China Sea for Four Days After Engineering Casualty — 5 sources, grade ARussian attack on Ukraine's capital region leaves 16 dead — 4 sources, grade BEbola vaccine trial to start in DR Congo as warning issued over speed of infections — 4 sources, grade BNotice of Action: Brazil's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Digital Trade and Electronic Payment Services; Unfair, Preferential Tari — 4 sources, grade AWorried About America, Taiwan Proposes Massive Military Budget Increase — 4 sources, grade CZelenskyy: Up to 50,000 North Korean troops will be sent to Russia — 4 sources, grade BChinese Warships, Bombers Surge to Scarborough Shoal for Drills — 4 sources, grade AUK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest — 4 sources, grade AIsraeli strikes kill 11 in Lebanon two months into truce — 4 sources, grade BDefence Secretary concludes two-day visit to Armenia - PIB — 3 sources, grade ATaiwan's Q2 current account surplus hits 3rd highest on AI boom — 3 sources, grade BUS greenlights potential $4.5B sale of four KC-46A refueling aircraft to Qatar — 3 sources, grade BGDELT: conflict event - Tehran, Tehran, Iran (Iran / Iran) — 3 sources, grade DRussia Shows Su-34s Carrying Four Jet-Capable UMPK Glide Bombs — 3 sources, grade BJapan’s Defence Minister calls on PM Modi - PIB — 3 sources, grade ATakaichi slams Putin’s visit to disputed Pacific islands — 3 sources, grade BBritain's Former Military Chief Furious About Defense Shortfalls — 3 sources, grade CUkrainian Forces Advance North of Kharkiv, Russia Claims Gains Near Kupyansk, ISW Says - Kyiv Post — 3 sources, grade BAid shortages and fears of starvation as Indonesia reels from deadly earthquake — 3 sources, grade BFounder of collapsed Chinese property giant Evergrande sentenced to life in prison — 3 sources, grade BRussian attacks kill eight as Ukraine hits Black Sea oil tankers — 3 sources, grade BMovie that went viral for terrible animation becomes China box office hit — 3 sources, grade BThe fragmentation of resistance in Afghanistan — 3 sources, grade BTaiwan’s Tanks — 3 sources, grade AUkraine’s Latest Armor Donor? A Military Museum — 3 sources, grade BMOFA's top diplomat on U.S. named as Taiwan's new envoy to Australia — 3 sources, grade BUS and Canada haggle over trade deal as midnight tariffs threat looms — 2 sources, grade BRosenberg: Shortage of petrol but not patriotism as Russians feel growing impact of war — 2 sources, grade BWhat is the Future for Serbs in Kosovo? | A Debrief With Tatjana Lazarević and Dan Ilazi — 2 sources, grade BHeavy rain forecast for southern Taiwan through Monday — 2 sources, grade BPeru earthquake damages buildings and causes power cuts — 2 sources, grade BMajor Russian grain export terminals hit in Ukraine Black Sea port attack — 2 sources, grade BGermany Arrests Ukrainian Suspected of Spying on Arms Firm — 2 sources, grade CPakistan ex-PM Imran Khan back in jail after hospital examination — 2 sources, grade BTropical Storm 17W (Saudel), # 7: Okinawa bound? - Stripes Okinawa — 2 sources, grade BXinhua News | China considers law amendment to boost foreign-related legal services - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DGDELT: armed clash - North Korea (South Korea / North Korea) — 2 sources, grade D
live
dot size = independent sourcestile chart = daily report activity per chokepointcolour = best source grade:A–B reliableC fairly reliableD not usually reliableE–F unreliable

Most corroborated this week

Standing watch

Indicators we set in advance — and whether they fired. The assessed meaning of a firing runs in the weekly brief.

Grey-zone incident at Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal

quiet

PLAN carrier group transits first island chain chokepoint

FIRED 2026-08-15

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

quiet

Last 24 hours

3,051 reports collected and fused in the last day.

US greenlights potential $4.5B sale of four KC-46A refueling aircraft to Qatar

Qatar

Peru earthquake damages buildings and causes power cuts

Peru

Pakistan ex-PM Imran Khan back in jail after hospital examination

Pakistan

Focused tracker

PLA Navy Tracker — where is the Chinese fleet? →

A China-focused disposition view: Taiwan MND daily activity counts, free Sentinel satellite imagery over every PLAN home berth, and graded sightings — on a dedicated map of the home bases and chokepoints.

Launching September 2026

First Island Brittleness — the number this page is building toward

Everything Pacific Watch collects feeds a quarterly 0–100 index measuring how fast the US-allied position in the Indo-Pacific is decaying versus being rebuilt — munitions latency, industrial regeneration, allied political half-life. The index level, its drivers, and a monthly political sub-index will publish here, with full history. Methodology →

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Pacific Watch shows what our engine sees. The weekly Pacific Brief is what we assess it means — graded sourcing, the rival read steelmanned, PHIA likelihood language, and a public record of every judgment we publish, including the ones we get wrong.

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Open data & feeds

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Methodology: events are machine-fused from open-source reporting (semantic clustering, 12-day window, geographic gating) and shown only when corroborated by two or more independent sources with a resolved location. Source grades follow NATO Admiralty (STANAG 2511) reliability. Chokepoint states are event-count based until our baseline matures, then anomaly-scored. The public snapshot is delayed 6 hours and excludes client-scoped collection. Full methodology →