Live collection · updated hourly

Pacific Watch

Corroborated defence and security events across the Indo-Pacific, fused from 120 open sources by our Argus collection engine. Every dot is a multi-source event; size is corroboration, colour is best source grade (NATO Admiralty). The public feed runs 6 hours behind live collection.

14,080

reports collected, last 7 days

120

sources under continuous collection

1726

active fused events

46 min ago

snapshot generated

40°E60°E80°E100°E120°E140°E160°E180°E-40°S-20°S0°N20°N40°N60°NTaiwan StraitScarboroughHormuzMalaccaKorean Pen.Miyako StraitThe lesson of the Iran War may be staying power, not firepower — 23 sources, grade APutin’s Asia diplomacy may help Russia avoid isolation. But it won’t deliver his goals in Ukraine - Chatham House — 20 sources, grade AMore salami-slicing: now China mounts coast guard patrols east of Taiwan — 17 sources, grade ABetter to use (and lose) robots than soldiers: Ukraine’s UGV drive — 16 sources, grade AOn the Strait of Hormuz, BBC finds seized ships and shark fishermen as uneasy calm returns — 15 sources, grade BReport to Congress on Russian Military Activities in Asia — 11 sources, grade ARussia bombards Kyiv in one of war’s biggest strikes, at least 21 people killed — 10 sources, grade BChina fires ballistic missile into Pacific nuclear-free zone — 10 sources, grade BChina’s military AI logistics: peacetime gains, wartime vulnerabilities — 9 sources, grade AIran War supplemental deepens FY27 budget uncertainty — 9 sources, grade BChina’s Pacific ballistic missile test – Views from ASPI analysts — 7 sources, grade A'I ate ketchup and cheese,' says Venezuelan girl trapped under quake rubble for 32 hours — 7 sources, grade BCase Study 2 – Has Australia developed a distinct Grand Strategy since 2020? - theforge.defence.gov.au — 7 sources, grade AOccupational Risk? Chinese Presence Surges at Scarborough Shoal - Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative — 7 sources, grade BChina's submarine missile test alarms regional neighbors — 6 sources, grade BChina-Russia naval exercise challenges US-led military might in Pacific, experts say - stripes.com — 6 sources, grade BChina’s $295 Billion Ambitions for AI Will Drive up Domestic High-Tech Stocks — 6 sources, grade BThe complications that China’s build-up brings to nuclear balance — 6 sources, grade AUK clamps down on shady networks supplying Putin’s illegal war with new sanctions package — 6 sources, grade AChina says it can withstand trade freeze ahead of EU talks — 6 sources, grade BU.S. Disables 3 Tankers As Part of Iranian Blockade, 3 Mariners Killed in Tuesday Strike — 6 sources, grade AWhat to expect from the US at the 2026 NATO summit — 5 sources, grade BEurope’s security cannot be built on coercion or spheres of influence: UK statement to the OSCE — 5 sources, grade AWashington’s Blue Pacific problem — 5 sources, grade BUS media: IRGC fires missiles at ships near Strait of Hormuz — 4 sources, grade BIndonesia Signs BrahMos Missile Deal with India — 4 sources, grade BNorth Korea Commissions First-in-class Destroyer Choe Hyon — 4 sources, grade AAnthropic’s Export Control Crackdown Leaves South Korea Caught in Washington’s AI Crossfire — 4 sources, grade BMillions to attend funeral procession for Iran supreme leader — 4 sources, grade BThe new political logic of global tech and trade — 4 sources, grade BEbola treatments trial begins in DR Congo — 4 sources, grade BNew Report Blames Russia’s Shadow Fleet for Europe Drone Incursions — 4 sources, grade BBangladesh courts China even as ties with India improve — 4 sources, grade BZelenskyy may get the last laugh over Trump — 4 sources, grade BHungary’s reset with Ukraine is good news for European deterrence - Chatham House — 4 sources, grade AUkraine Is Killing Thousands of Russians Every Week. Is It Making a Difference? — 4 sources, grade CChina sets out its vision for a new global order – but will it commit the resources to match its ambition? - Chatham House — 4 sources, grade AUkraine’s Gripen E Contract Finalized — 4 sources, grade BIsrael and Iran flare-up could strengthen Tehran's negotiating hand — 3 sources, grade BAmerica at 250 — 3 sources, grade BWall Street banks recover in China amid trading boom — 3 sources, grade BAustralia and Fiji sign historic Vuvale Union and Ocean of Peace Alliance - minister.defence.gov.au — 3 sources, grade AFrench Seizes 5th Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker — 3 sources, grade AChina-friendly KMT stunts Taiwan’s attempt to grow into a fully formed hedgehog — 3 sources, grade A£15 billion new funding boost to transform Armed Forces and keep the UK safe — 3 sources, grade APolish opposition deepens spat with Ukraine — 3 sources, grade BHow China Is Meddling in America’s AI Debate — 3 sources, grade CIsraeli strikes in southern Lebanon kill 17, reports say — 3 sources, grade BGCAP Fighter Project Advances with £4.6 Billion Contract Award to Edgewing — 3 sources, grade BIsrael strikes southern Lebanon as Hezbollah condemns new deal — 3 sources, grade BCanada Selects TKMS as Preferred Bidder for CPSP Submarine Program — 2 sources, grade BCanada picks Germany’s TKMS for historic submarine buy, in nod to Europe — 2 sources, grade BNorway provides both a model, and a warning, for NATO — 2 sources, grade B[TENDER · GB · Business Services Organisation Procurement and Logistics Service] Preliminary Market Engagement Questionnaire - Supraglottic — 2 sources, grade AThales to buy French underwater-drone maker Exail in $4.5 billion deal — 2 sources, grade BWhy Russia Still Isn’t Finished with Armenia — 2 sources, grade CBarring a counter to oil damage, Russian economy seen in crisis — 2 sources, grade CUK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest — 2 sources, grade AChinese tycoon sentenced to 30 years in US jail — 2 sources, grade BJapan’s ‘Mr Yen’ keeps market guessing on currency intervention — 2 sources, grade BLukashenko says Belarus will not join Putin’s war in Ukraine — 2 sources, grade BChina food-security risks worsen as extreme weather becomes more common — 2 sources, grade CHGH to provide SPYNEL surveillance systems for Kuwait Navy’s AL DORRA OPV Program — 2 sources, grade BXinhua News | China's Tianwen-2 probe reaches target asteroid, starts scientific exploration - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DXinhua News | Venezuela quake death toll rises to 3,342 - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DChina mulls revisions to gold import, export regulations - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DEvacuations in Guam as super typhoon Bavi approaches — 2 sources, grade BHainan showcases 22 companies at supply chain exhibition in Beijing — newspaper — 2 sources, grade DChina fires up world’s biggest superconducting magnet for nuclear fusion project — 2 sources, grade CIn Defense of Oman — 2 sources, grade CPrime Minister highlights transformation of India’s defence capabilities driven by self-reliance and innovation over the last decade - PIB — 2 sources, grade APakistan to host next round of U.S.-Iran talks on July 11 -- Saudi media - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DRussia, Hamas, and China: Three reasons Turkey shouldn’t get the F-35 — 2 sources, grade BThis Is The Massive Aerial Armada That Is About To Fly Over The Capital — 2 sources, grade BChina’s influence on African ports extends to software, automation and AI: study — 2 sources, grade CChina’s air-conditioned lesson for Europe’s killer heat wave — 2 sources, grade CChina’s truck drone launcher hides airpower in civilian traffic — 2 sources, grade CAll Taiwanese reservists now must undergo 14-day intensive training — 2 sources, grade BUS withdrew forces from Nigeria after operation against ISIS, AFRICOM chief says — 2 sources, grade BNATO Says ‘Billions’ to Be Spent on Defense Contracts, Including in America — 2 sources, grade C
live
dot size = independent sourcestile chart = daily report activity per chokepointcolour = best source grade:A–B reliableC fairly reliableD not usually reliableE–F unreliable

Most corroborated this week

Standing watch

Indicators we set in advance — and whether they fired. The assessed meaning of a firing runs in the weekly brief.

Grey-zone incident at Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal

FIRED 2026-07-03

PLAN carrier group transits first island chain chokepoint

quiet

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

quiet

Last 24 hours

2,627 reports collected and fused in the last day.

Canada Selects TKMS as Preferred Bidder for CPSP Submarine Program

Canada

Canada picks Germany’s TKMS for historic submarine buy, in nod to Europe

Germany

Thales to buy French underwater-drone maker Exail in $4.5 billion deal

France

Focused tracker

PLA Navy Tracker — where is the Chinese fleet? →

A China-focused disposition view: Taiwan MND daily activity counts, free Sentinel satellite imagery over every PLAN home berth, and graded sightings — on a dedicated map of the home bases and chokepoints.

Launching September 2026

First Island Brittleness — the number this page is building toward

Everything Pacific Watch collects feeds a quarterly 0–100 index measuring how fast the US-allied position in the Indo-Pacific is decaying versus being rebuilt — munitions latency, industrial regeneration, allied political half-life. The index level, its drivers, and a monthly political sub-index will publish here, with full history. Methodology →

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Methodology: events are machine-fused from open-source reporting (semantic clustering, 12-day window, geographic gating) and shown only when corroborated by two or more independent sources with a resolved location. Source grades follow NATO Admiralty (STANAG 2511) reliability. Chokepoint states are event-count based until our baseline matures, then anomaly-scored. The public snapshot is delayed 6 hours and excludes client-scoped collection. Full methodology →