Live collection · updated hourly

Pacific Watch

Corroborated defence and security events across the Indo-Pacific, fused from 120 open sources by our Argus collection engine. Every dot is a multi-source event; size is corroboration, colour is best source grade (NATO Admiralty). The public feed runs 6 hours behind live collection.

11,711

reports collected, last 7 days

120

sources under continuous collection

1518

active fused events

56 min ago

snapshot generated

40°E60°E80°E100°E120°E140°E160°E180°E-40°S-20°S0°N20°N40°N60°NTaiwan StraitScarboroughHormuzMalaccaKorean Pen.Miyako StraitThe facts of Russia’s war against Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE — 30 sources, grade ANuclear weapons: the global outlook in an unstable new era — 30 sources, grade ATaiwan MND daily PLA report (2026-10-04): 0 PLA aircraft sorties, 7 PLAN vessels, 8 coast-guard vessels around Taiwan — 28 sources, grade ASouth Korea and Europe: advancing cooperation in a changing security environment - The International Institute for Strategic Studies — 27 sources, grade AHormuz Transits Hit Three-week High, VLCC Rates Explode — 24 sources, grade AU.S. senator warns China's flight restrictions threaten international travelers — 22 sources, grade BChina is building an AI system for tailoring its foreign propaganda — 22 sources, grade AUK pledges winter air defence package to boost Ukraine's defences — 21 sources, grade AJapan’s critical-minerals strategy - The International Institute for Strategic Studies — 21 sources, grade APentagon Doubles Down on Pacific Area Denial, Need for High-end Munitions — 20 sources, grade ARussia’s battlefield claims do not withstand examination: UK statement to the OSCE — 18 sources, grade ATwo killed in 'massive' Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow region, Russia says — 15 sources, grade BDenmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying - Chatham House — 15 sources, grade ARussia’s Pacific submarine fleet could tip the scales in China’s favour — 14 sources, grade AAir Force, Japan Exercise Tsunami Evacuation Procedures — 13 sources, grade AJapanese companies exit China in record numbers — 13 sources, grade B‘China shock 2.0’ and Europe’s industrial future | Acknowledgments - Chatham House — 12 sources, grade A3 Years of Middle East Combat Altering How Navy Supplies, Maintains Fleet, Leaders Say — 11 sources, grade AUS leaders send mixed messages to Indo-Pacific nations — 11 sources, grade BUK expertise to bolster Polish air defences in boost to NATO security — 11 sources, grade APM meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 24 August 2026 — 11 sources, grade AHow Taiwan’s Elite Military Police Plan to Defend Taipei — 10 sources, grade AHouthis, Yemen Fighting Continues, Saudi Arabia Faces Pipeline Challenges — 10 sources, grade ATriumph or Procrastination? Experts Split on the Trump-Xi Summit — 9 sources, grade BReduction Expected for Japan Cost-of-Living Allowance Rates — 9 sources, grade AUS Trade Policy Toward Taiwan Should Not Undermine America’s AI Ambitions - Hudson Institute — 9 sources, grade BWhy Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion — 9 sources, grade BRussia Unveils Stealthy Munitions for the Su-57 at El Alamein Airshow — 9 sources, grade BTaiwan’s parliament finally passes drone bill to back hedgehog strategy — 9 sources, grade AHow Russia’s new drones are changing the air war — 8 sources, grade BPrime Minister secures Ukraine defence deal backing British jobs and industry: 13 July 2026 — 7 sources, grade AHegseth, German Counterpart Agree to Advance Defense Industrial Cooperation — 7 sources, grade ATaiwan Receives First Two New-Build F-16C Block 70 Fighters After Years of Delays — 7 sources, grade BChain businesses association seeks more foreign workers — 7 sources, grade BPeople escape historic Kyiv building hit by Russian drone — 6 sources, grade BYemen's government announces all-out war to reclaim land from Houthis — 6 sources, grade BDrone-hunting on the border, plus turmoil at an Air Force think tank — 6 sources, grade BUK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest — 6 sources, grade AU.S. Reveals Coast Guard Cooperation with Taiwan — 6 sources, grade AGermany receives first F-35 fighter jet - ac.nato.int — 6 sources, grade BWhat Will Indonesia Do With Its New Aircraft Carrier? — 5 sources, grade BThe Kuril Flashpoint: Putin’s Visit and the Future of Japan-Russia Ties — 5 sources, grade BZelenskyy asked Trump to block Russia and China’s Starlink rival — 5 sources, grade BLong Neptune Strike: Ukraine’s New Cruise Missile Cripples Russian Warships in Novorossiysk — 5 sources, grade BChina Claims Expanded Zone Around Scarborough Shoal, Deploys New Drone — 4 sources, grade AFlávio Bolsonaro takes commanding lead in Brazil election — 4 sources, grade BUS removes B-1 bombers from UK base amid security concerns — 4 sources, grade BB-1B Bombers Make Hasty Departure From England — 4 sources, grade BLaos air base part of China's Indian Ocean ambitions: Expert — 4 sources, grade BOkinawa police arrest US Marine on suspicion of killing Japanese woman at hotel - stripes.com — 4 sources, grade BUkrainian Armed Forces troops thwarted Russia's plan to encircle key cities in the Donetsk region, according to the ISW - UA.NEWS — 4 sources, grade BPoland secures $4 billion in US military financing as American delegation scouts potential base sites - stripes.com — 4 sources, grade BDomestic needs to drive next Trump-Xi meeting: Scholar — 4 sources, grade BPanda diplomacy: all the countries currently hosting China’s beloved ambassadors — 4 sources, grade CChina pressured Munich institute to cancel Taiwan author event: Diplomat — 3 sources, grade BRussia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show — 3 sources, grade BHeavy rain alert issued Monday for parts of Taiwan — 3 sources, grade BCuba Sanctions Regulations — 3 sources, grade AU.S. Mimics “Decoupled” Nuclear Detonation By Blowing Up A Tunnel Conventionally — 3 sources, grade BOctober 2, 2026 Maritime Staff Office (Announcement) Chief of Staff, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (CMS), Admiral SAITO’s - mod.go.jp — 3 sources, grade AHungary set to drop veto on Ukraine and Moldova EU bid progress — 2 sources, grade BChina buys time for its young scientists as US rations it — 2 sources, grade CAll B-1 Bombers Leave RAF Fairford in Hasty Departure from UK Base — 2 sources, grade BNetanyahu says Flydubai attacker had 'Islamist radical indoctrination' — 2 sources, grade BFinland’s Military Is Getting New Anti-Air Missiles — 2 sources, grade CXinhua News | Over 300 artifacts, documents debut in Beijing as China marks 90th anniversary of Long March victory - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade D4 killed in fire at building materials store in Yilan — 2 sources, grade BLeaders of China, US agree to provide mutual support for hosting APEC, G20 summits — 2 sources, grade DUS to deploy NMESIS anti-ship system on Japanese island closest to Taiwan for first time — 2 sources, grade CUS Coast Guard reports seizing two vessels carrying fuel to Cuba — 2 sources, grade DMetal Shark Awarded Contract for 13 Patrol Boats for Vietnam — 2 sources, grade BThe right and wrong lessons to learn from Spain’s housing crisis — 2 sources, grade BLong-range radar deal puts Ireland on course to shrink capability gap — 2 sources, grade B[TENDER · GB · Northern Ireland Water Limited] T164 – Hydro Turbine Maintenance — 2 sources, grade A[TENDER · GB · Woven Housing Association Ltd] Competitive Land Design and Build Contract within NIHE area Lisburn, Northern Ireland (GBP 15, — 2 sources, grade AUK statement on escalation in northern Ethiopia: 24 September — 2 sources, grade AUK universities comb records for China links after MI5 warning — 2 sources, grade BSeoul warns 'further action' if Ukraine does not apologise over prisoner-of-war row — 2 sources, grade BOnline claims revive mercury mystery around tomb of first Chinese emperor — 2 sources, grade CCambodia an early warning of China’s AI surveillance exports — 2 sources, grade C
live
dot size = independent sourcestile chart = daily report activity per chokepointcolour = best source grade:A–B reliableC fairly reliableD not usually reliableE–F unreliable

Most corroborated this week

Standing watch

Indicators we set in advance — and whether they fired. The assessed meaning of a firing runs in the weekly brief.

Grey-zone incident at Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal

FIRED 2026-09-29

PLAN carrier group transits first island chain chokepoint

quiet

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

quiet

Last 24 hours

2,369 reports collected and fused in the last day.

All B-1 Bombers Leave RAF Fairford in Hasty Departure from UK Base

United Kingdom

Hungary set to drop veto on Ukraine and Moldova EU bid progress

Hungary

Focused tracker

PLA Navy Tracker — where is the Chinese fleet? →

A China-focused disposition view: Taiwan MND daily activity counts, free Sentinel satellite imagery over every PLAN home berth, and graded sightings — on a dedicated map of the home bases and chokepoints.

Launching September 2026

First Island Brittleness — the number this page is building toward

Everything Pacific Watch collects feeds a quarterly 0–100 index measuring how fast the US-allied position in the Indo-Pacific is decaying versus being rebuilt — munitions latency, industrial regeneration, allied political half-life. The index level, its drivers, and a monthly political sub-index will publish here, with full history. Methodology →

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The map is the collection. The brief is the judgment.

Pacific Watch shows what our engine sees. The weekly Pacific Brief is what we assess it means — graded sourcing, the rival read steelmanned, PHIA likelihood language, and a public record of every judgment we publish, including the ones we get wrong.

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Open data & feeds

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Methodology: events are machine-fused from open-source reporting (semantic clustering, 12-day window, geographic gating) and shown only when corroborated by two or more independent sources with a resolved location. Source grades follow NATO Admiralty (STANAG 2511) reliability. Chokepoint states are event-count based until our baseline matures, then anomaly-scored. The public snapshot is delayed 6 hours and excludes client-scoped collection. Full methodology →